Tag archives: cognitive biases

What Are the Odds? Can Bayes Help?
By Robert Bernstein   |   June 27, 2023

We hairless apes are notoriously bad at estimating probabilities. I plan to write more about other such “cognitive biases.” For example, if you see several coin tosses coming up heads, do you think that the odds go up for the next toss to be tails? Assuming a fair coin, the odds for each toss are […]