Where Are We Going?

The only war objective that the Administration has had success with is the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities. The other goals have not been achieved. 

– There has been no regime change and the people have not risen up in rebellion.

– We have not eliminated Iran’s nuclear threat. We have degraded their programs, but they still have, according to reliable sources, 900 lbs. of semi-enriched uranium and, probably, refinement apparatus such as centrifuges. No one really knows for sure, but the Administration is not yet claiming they have wiped it out. If they had they wouldn’t have to pressure the Iranians to give it up.

– Right after we attacked (February 28) they shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through. 

– They still have, according to military estimates, a “substantial” though reduced supply of missiles and drones. Asymmetric warfare is difficult to defend.

– They have dragged their Arab neighbors into the war and now threaten to destroy their infrastructure and their oil and gas facilities as retaliation for our bombing. 

– Negotiations have stalemated. 

There are two important questions to ask about this war. One is, did the Administration and Trump carefully think it through before the decision was made to start the war? The other is, is the Administration, specifically President Trump, capable of achieving the war’s two most important objectives: oil flow and nukes?

The New York Times did a deep dive into the leadup to the war relying on insiders who were directly involved in the decision process. I urge concerned citizens to read it. The quick synopsis is that the Israelis (Netanyahu) pitched a scenario to Trump whereby the Iranian leadership would be decapitated, we could take out their ballistic missiles, they would be too weak to shut down the Strait, the risk to their neighbors would be minimal, the people would rise up against the regime, and a secular regime would take its place. 

Trump’s intelligence advisers said: yes, leadership decapitation was feasible; preventing threats to neighbors was also feasible. The popular uprising and regime change was deemed “farcical,” or, as Secretary Rubio put it, “Bulls**t.” Even Vance opposed the war. General Caine specifically warned about Iran’s ability to control the Strait. Trump dismissed that warning, thinking it would be a quick war. 

The war has not been going well for the Administration and President Trump. The objectives of eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability and degrading their ability to create chaos in the Middle East and the world seem a long way off. 

We do need to eliminate their nuclear capability. The Iranian regime has always wanted a nuclear weapon to protect against existential threats to the regime. They do not want to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, and the most recent evidence was in the pre-war round of negotiations where we offered free low-grade uranium for energy purposes if they would give up their nuclear program. They rejected the offer.

So far, the war’s outcomes are far from what Trump anticipated when he ordered the attack on Iran. Yes, the regime was decapitated, but new leaders have emerged. Their military has been devastated but they haven’t run out of missiles and drones. The Strait is effectively controlled by Iran. 

Trump now seems desperate. His two posts on Truth Social were disturbing. On April 5 at 5:03 am he said, “Open the F***in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” On April 7 at 5:06 am, he posted, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” And there was also the bomb them back to the stone age statement. I don’t think I’m the only one who finds this kind of rhetoric from a President of the United States of America unsettling. 

Trump frequently changes his objectives in the war. He announces his reasons and goals and then changes them. He threatens and then backs off. An enemy might take this as bombastic bluff. So far, it hasn’t worked.

On Monday (April 13) Trump implemented a blockade of the Straits in retaliation for the collapse of the peace negotiations. He also threatened to hit water and power plants in Iran. Which means we will be back to war. If so, the Iranians have threatened to go all out by attacking water, power, and oil facilities of their Arab neighbors. That would be unacceptable.

We need an exit strategy. Based on where we are as of the date of this article (April 13) peace looks a long way off. To exit we need to open the Strait, defend the Gulf states, and continue bombing their nuclear sites. How long will that take? War is complicated and unpredictable.