War Against Iran, Part II

On the day this article reaches the newsstands it will be the 19th day of the WAR in Iran. Things are still uncertain and moving fast.

My Part I article on the war yielded a lot of comments, good and bad. I’m accused by critics of a lot of things – mainly that I ignored the administration’s confused justifications and that I misunderstood the history of Iran and their nuclear ambition. 

There is still much confusion in the administration, especially about the why. While that is a surprising way to start a war, it is typical of Trump. It would have been more reassuring if he had said the only way to stop terrorism and achieve peace in the Middle East is to get rid of the regime and to never let Iran become a nuclear power. But he didn’t.

I noted in my piece that there were constitutional issues of a president’s war powers plus a cynical reference to the timing of the mid-term elections. I have written a lot about the dangers of an imperial presidency, but I wanted the article to focus on the war and what I thought were good reasons for it and, since we were already there, now what? 

Some comments noted Iran’s repeated protestations that they only sought the right to refine uranium for peaceful purposes and that they had no nuclear ambitions. I don’t think that any of that matters today except maybe Trump’s competence to run a war. 

What does matter is Iran’s continued terrorism and their desire to become a nuclear power. The stated goal of the messianic fanatics who control Iran is for Iran to be the hegemon, the dominant power of the Middle East. They also want to wipe Israel off the planet. 

One tool they use to achieve their goal is terrorism against those who oppose them. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other terrorist groups are their proxies for terrorism. They create chaos everywhere.

Then there is the fact that the ayatollahs want the bomb. They always have. It is their ticket to becoming a superpower in the Middle East and the world. If they do become a nuclear power, nobody – including the U.S. – can touch them for fear they will use it. These messianic fanatics believe they are the true instruments of God, and they will do what they can to preserve themselves.

I have little confidence that they will achieve an effective “command and control” apparatus over their nukes as does nuclear Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Those countries went nuclear to preserve their borders. Iran has expansionist goals of exporting their Islamic Revolution to their neighbors.

The nuclear deal with Iran reached by the Obama Administration in 2015 allowed Iran to enrich uranium to a non-weapons grade level. Trump pulled out of the 2015 deal in 2018. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency stated that Iran had been sticking to the 2015 deal by enriching uranium only to levels allowed by those guidelines, and that they were enriching uranium solely for
peaceful purposes. 

Let me explain why that is a lie.

Anyone believing they were processing uranium for “peaceful” purposes is ignoring reality. A nation with large oil reserves doesn’t need uranium to generate power. What they want is a supply of uranium that has been refined to “weapons” grade. To do that they need the equipment and scientists capable of refining uranium. The right to refine uranium to “legal” standards is a start. That same equipment has the ability to refine uranium to weapons grade. When they have the ability to secretly develop it to weapons grade, they will.

The Israelis have the best information about Iran from reliable sources including sources they have developed from within Iran. They have said the ayatollahs’ long-term goal is to achieve nuclear weapons and that it is likely that they are secretly continuing to refine uranium. Since this is an existential threat to Israel, they can’t afford to get it wrong. I believe the Israelis, not the ayatollahs.

They already have semi-guided ballistic missiles with a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles). We see what they have done with drones and shorter-range weapons. It is obvious they have or will have the ability to increase the range of their missiles. Ultimately, if left alone, they will have missiles armed with nuclear warheads with increased range. 

No one knows how this war will come out. So far, the regime is cleverer than Trump and his administration had anticipated. That is the problem with wars: s**t happens. I agree with critics that one can doubt Trump’s resolve and his ability to see things beyond his own political hide. I think it is best to ignore almost anything that comes out of the Trump Administration right now.

My hope is that this war will allow us and the Israelis to eventually achieve the important goal of peace in the region. That seem a long way off right now, but giving up is a worse alternative. Someone must stop Iran.