Will Russian Oil Tip the Midterms to the GOP?

The midterm elections are proof that we are still a democratic constitutional republic. President Trump is afraid that our free and fair election process will actually work and deprive him of control of Congress. 

If Republicans retain control over the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump will praise the electoral process as being fair and he will claim it is a mandate for his policies. If the Democrats take just one Congressional house, he will claim massive fraud and unleash the Justice Department to go after the states and districts that went Democratic.

Trump has reason to be afraid of losing one or both Congressional houses. The polls are saying that the Democrats have a more than better chance of winning the House and a “maybe” for the Senate. As we know polls have been wrong. The classic case was Nate Silver’s 71% projection for a Hillary Clinton win in 2016. Trump lost the popular vote (48% to 46%) but won the Electoral College by 56%. 

I have been warning about the fallibility of polls, but now, being close to the election, it looks bad for the Republicans. Apparently, Trump agrees with my assessment because he is taking desperate measures to win over voters. He is attempting to bribe voters with cash gifts. He has promised a $5,000 “gift” to every adult citizen if the GOP controls both houses. With 245,275,126 adult citizens that would cost $1.23 trillion. As former Republican leader Everett Dirksen said, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” 

He’s also proposing a $100 “rebate” to 2.8 million eligible Medicare beneficiaries and a $500 refund for Affordable Care Act costs that would benefit about 1 million insurance purchasers under the Act.

His most egregious election tactic is his “deal” with Russian Dictator Vladimir Putin to buy diesel fuel from the Russians. No one knows if this is real or a fantasy of the president. At the time of writing this article he also says Ukraine and Russia agreed to stop bombing each other’s energy infrastructure. The news says otherwise.

Trump’s quasi-support of Russia and Putin is a dangerous move. It jeopardizes world stability and order. We have labeled Russia a “foreign adversary,” and we have leveled heavy sanctions against it. Putin’s fellow “foreign adversaries” are China, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. NATO is re-arming in response to Russian threats and “adventurism.” 

The egregious part of the diesel deal is that it in effect abandons our support of Ukraine in the war with Russia.

The egregious part of the diesel deal is that it in effect abandons our support of Ukraine in the war with Russia. Trump flip-flops back and forth about Ukraine and Russia in this conflict and constantly lies about it and somehow blames Ukraine for starting it. Legally we can’t buy Russian oil. Congress imposed a ban on importing Russian oil in 2017 (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act –CAATSA). It would require Congressional approval to suspend the ban. Any attempt to go around the requirements and buy their diesel fuel would give grounds for impeachment should the Democrats
win Congress. 

There is an upside to this. And that is that even Trump understands that our elections are free and fair. Otherwise he would not appear so desperate to buy voters’ votes. I don’t believe his pandering will work for him. Nor do I think Elon Musk’s reported $366 million he will spend in support of Republican candidates will turn the tide. 

The result of a Democratic win will be lawsuit after lawsuit for the rest of Trump’s term. Add to that Congressional investigations of Trump’s dealings and his family’s dealings. The Supreme Court will be very busy. There will also be legislative gridlock. There will be turmoil in his administration and cabinet with members getting out while they can. It will be a boon for lawyers. Trump will be a lame duck until the end.

This will be a very consequential election.