The Meandering Mind

The mind of your Independent Mind columnist has been adrift this week. Too much going on to take it all in. So, I am going to report on two things I can’t get out of my head. 

Rent Control

The City of Santa Barbara ignored my generous offer of help on the issue of rent control. In my MJ article of February 19, 2025 (“Santa Barbara City Council’s Magical Thinking”) I offered to conduct a study of the economic effects of a rent control ordinance. For free. I cited my long experience in real estate and knowledge of economics. 

I waited by the proverbial phone for a call from the City but it never happened. 

What did happen was that they hired another consultant, RSG, to advise the City on how to implement a rent control ordinance. RSG will provide a report with lots of data and colorful charts about the rental market here, with recommendations on what the ordinance needs to survive legal challenges. RSG are advocates of rent control and they are advising them on how to do it, not analyzing whether or not should they do it. The Progressive majority of Council members have already made up their minds. RSG gets $65,000 for their efforts.

The “magical thinking” part of my article was the Council’s majority Progressive members’ belief that by simply passing a rent control ordinance, rent control will magically work out for tenants despite massive evidence to the contrary. It’s not simple. RSG advised Concord, California, on their bureaucratically dense 31-page-long rent control ordinance. 

War in Iran

We are now a month into the war against Iran. Things haven’t gone according to plan. The plan, as far as we can tell, was to knock out Iran’s leaders, destroy much of their military infrastructure, and bring about a new, perhaps secular, regime. Ergo, peace in the Middle East. These are worthy goals. A peaceful, open, secular Iran would change the entire dynamic in the Middle East for the better. Iran’s ayatollahs had different ideas.

Israel has killed most of Iran’s visible leadership. I hate to use the term “whack-a-mole” when you are killing people, but it’s a pretty good metaphor for what’s been happening. I am sure new leadership has emerged in Iran, but who and where is a secret, for fear they will be killed. 

We have destroyed much of their military infrastructure, but apparently not all of it. Our and Israel’s intelligence underestimated their supplies of missiles and drones because, despite a diminishment in Iran’s attacks, they do keep coming. Iran implemented their Mosaic strategy by distributing its forces around the county and giving some authority to local commanders to act independently. They saw us coming and planned an effective strategy for it. 

Iran also went on the offensive, a political and military one. By attacking their Arab neighbors, they have done two things with political ramifications. Since they now see the danger of living close to Iran, the neighbors have drawn closer to the U.S. for protection. But, while the Arab neighbors are forced to seek our protection, they have been dragged into a war they didn’t want. These things benefit Iran in the short-term.

By closing the Straits of Hormuz, they have attacked the economies of their oil producing Arab neighbors and their customers around the world. Another semi-smart political move as it puts pressure on us to do something about it. 

It’s a mess. As I said in my previous articles, I think defanging Iran and its nuclear ambitions are necessary for peace in the Middle East, if not the world. The “mess” part of the situation puts pressure on President Trump to solve the mess I believe he didn’t anticipate when he sent in the bombers. I still question Trump’s ability to emerge from the mess with a positive outcome.

I doubt we can re-open the Straits of Hormuz by military force. They have mobile launchers 200 miles away that can block traffic. The only realistic solution is negotiation. 

Unless they have secret facilities, we have temporarily destroyed their nuclear weapons program. Ask yourself why they are even refining uranium if not for nuclear purposes. According to the head of the U.N.’s atomic energy agency (IAEA) we have about three years to figure out a permanent solution before they are up and running again.

One scenario of the end of this war is that Trump will “negotiate” and declare victory. Iran will open the Straits, the replacement regime will emerge, and we will leave Iran to pick up the pieces. Until Iran’s theocratic dictatorship is gone, nothing much will change. This could be the legacy of the Trump Administration.