War Against Nuclear Iran

Since my last column two weeks ago a lot has been going on in the world, but nothing as significant as the war against Iran. At the time of writing this article (Sunday) it’s moving too fast and it’s far too early to come to any conclusions as to its outcome.

Regardless of what you think about Trump, this is a war to prevent a nuclear Iran from being a worldwide threat. The war’s secondary goal is to stop Iran’s exporting of terrorism. We can argue about the timing and its impact on the mid-term elections, and the constitutionality of a president’s war powers, but this war was going to happen at some point. I understand the nuclear agreement under Obama was discarded by Trump, but according to many nonpartisan experts it would not have stopped Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Nuclear weaponry is an existential goal for the regime.

The threat of a nuclear Iran is genuine. If the regime acquires nuclear weapons none of its neighbors will be safe. It gives Iran carte blanche to do whatever they want for fear that they may use these weapons. If they attain intercontinental missile technology, then they will be a danger to the world. Religious zealots are guided by bad ideas, not reason. A peaceful Middle East would be a long way off.

Terrorism committed by Iranian forces or their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, or independent actors) is a political tool used by the regime to control their Sunni Arab neighbors. They have killed many hundreds of people in the Middle East and the world. In 1983 they killed 63 people in our Beirut embassy and 241 U.S. soldiers and 58 French soldiers in their Beirut barracks. Terrorism is also a means to project an illusion of power. These medieval zealots have plagued Europe with bombings of the innocent and assassinations of Jews and dissidents. It’s not just Europe: they have murdered Jews around the world such as 114 in Argentina. 

To understand why things are the way they are you have to start before 1914 and World War I when a good part of Arabia was controlled by the Ottoman Empire (Turkey). Their empire bumped up against Iran in the east and Egypt to the southwest. After WW I and the defeat of the Ottomans all the modern Arab states were created: Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. These states were created by Britain and France mostly by drawing straight lines on a map. Most of them became colonies or protectorates of Britain and France.

Iran (known as Persia) was ruled by monarchies for millennia. Since 1501 they have been a predominantly Shia Muslim country. The Arabs are mostly Sunni Muslims. In 1979 radical Islamic forces toppled the corrupt and repressive Pahlavi rulers and the Shah fled the country leaving the radicals in control. From a somewhat more modern society under the Pahlavis, the radicals changed it into a society based on a strict interpretation of the Koran harking back to medieval times. In other words, repression of civil liberties, repression of women, enforcement of strict religious behavior, top-down economic policies, and corruption. Their use of religion is a means of control and a justification for intimidation, violence, and repression. To maintain their control they give generous financial rewards and powers to the armed forces. They use Arab hostility to Israel to gain political support from their Arab neighbors. These actions and policies have run the country into the ground.

These corrupt and zealous rulers are violent hard-liners with messianic beliefs of the righteousness of their regime and its goal of domination in the Middle East. Aside from the failure of their domestic economic policies, their terrorism resulted in international condemnation and conditions have gotten much worse in Iran because of trade embargoes, financial constraints, and punishment by Israel and the United States. 

The irony of it is that sophisticated urban Iranians are aware of what’s wrong with their society because they know what is going on in the rest of the world, especially Western Europe and the United States. These countries are examples of successful wealthy free democratic societies. They also know about the hundreds of thousands of Iranians who fled the country after 1979, most to the U.S. where they and their children have created successful lives because of our freedoms. This is why there is so much discontent in Iran.

It is not difficult to understand why Iran’s rulers pursue such destructive policies and actions. It’s the usual reasons for all dictators: money and power, and, in Iran, zealous religiosity. Their goal is self-preservation not the betterment of society. To deny the truth of their righteousness would be an admission of failure which would result in their demise.

As of this writing, the war is still being vigorously pursued with bombings of military facilities and the eradication of regime leaders. Trump has appealed to Iranians to take over the government from the regime, a dangerous and unattainable objective. Trump says he is willing to talk. This has a familiar ring to it. 

Trump believes in talk. But the only way to win this war is not through talk, but through victory. Victory in this case means surrender and the destruction of their nuclear weapons programs. It means a standdown of forces. It means a regime open to scrutiny, verification, and control of their weapons development by U.S. and western forces. It means vigorous enforcement with military consequences for cheating. It may mean permanent western military bases in Iran as watchdogs. Can victory be achieved with bombs? We will see.

The regime thinks they can wait us out. They look to Ukraine as an example of what they feel is America’s lack of resolve. Trump cannot let this happen or we will fail.